Tag Archives: Zuma

South Africa – could Maimane as DA leader have a role in forcing Zuma out?

Mail and Guardian

As crazy as it sounds, the likely new DA leader could be central to dispatching the president.

The Zuma-Zille years are drawing to a close. Both Jacob Zuma and Helen Zille won power and took over the leadership of their respective parties in 2007. At least one of them will go in 2015.

There is almost a critical mass of people on both the left and right of the ANC who are now willing to acknowledge that any use that Zuma had to them, their party and the country is outweighed by the damage he has done and the recognition that he is unable to provide the leadership needed.

The main opposition party has reached the same conclusion, albeit for different reasons, in respect of their leader. A critical mass of the Democratic Alliance’s senior figures recently also decided that, on balance, Zille has outlived her usefulness and that it is time for a change. A new leader will be elected at the DA’s national conference in May, and it will almost certainly be Mmusi Maimane.

These two political leaders will leave very different legacies. Zille can be proud of hers. As the awful cliché has it, she took the party “to the next level”. Under her leadership, the DA doubled its share of the vote and began not only to make progress in winning the support of black voters but also in diversifying the leadership of the organisation.

Neither could possibly have happened under the leadership of her predecessor, Tony Leon. He had bumped his head on one glass ceiling. Zille has located the next one.

Although no one should doubt her head-butting abilities, she has been compelled to accept that it is in no one’s interest that she should do so for very long, lest the party’s progress be stalled and the momentum gained in recent years lost.

The inescapable logic is that the DA needs a black leader if it is to maintain that momentum. Maimane is young at 34, but clearly has courage, as he showed during his remarkably powerful speech in the State of the Nation debate in February, when he looked the elder man in the eye and told Zuma he was a “broken” leader. Culturally, it was a brave speech; politically, it was brilliant.

To lead the DA will require a certain brilliance because it is a significantly more complex party, ideologically and organisationally, than it was eight years ago. His challenge will be different to Zille’s. She had to break the mould of the “boys’ club” that ran the DA under Leon. Maimane will need to continue to diversify the leadership and ensure it is tightly led and organised. It will be a delicate balance to strike.

As with any political leader, the most important quality that will be tested will be his political judgment. And one of the biggest, and earliest, tests will be whether to contribute to the hastening of Zuma’s departure from the scene.

How so? The DA judicial review case that challenges the lawfulness of the March 2009 decision to drop serious corruption charges against Zuma is to be heard by the high court in the coming months. After years of legal filibustering, Zuma is likely to finally get his day in court.

  Clearly, part of his legal spin now, as reported by this newspaper a week ago, is to argue that not only was he the victim of the Mbeki establishment’s abuse of the prosecutorial process but also that previous attempts had been made to offer Zuma financial inducements to usher him quietly from the political stage – to the tune of R20-million, it is alleged by Zuma’s lawyer, Michael Hulley, in an answering affidavit in the current DA case.

Those within the ANC who wish to reach “a political solution” again would regard that as a small price to pay for seeing the back of Zuma. Indeed, he himself would very probably happily accede to a carefully choreographed departure from power and to put his feet up at Nkandla, were it not for the prospect of the corruption charges being reinstated.

As he and his lawyers well know, this is the downside of the strong rule of law. It is all but impossible, as the DA case shows, to do a political deal that cannot be challenged. The court has affirmed as much in the Richard Mdluli case, which is very much a trial run, in legal terms, of the Zuma case. It also concerned the reviewability of decisions not to prosecute.

The Supreme Court of Appeal rather muddied the water, in contrast to the lucidity of the judgment of Justice John Murphy in the high court at first instance, but the core point remained intact: the original decision not to prosecute Mdluli was bad in law and the National Prosecuting Authority is required to reconsider which charges to reinstate against the politically well-connected former head of police intelligence.

Zuma’s own matter could have a similar outcome, so it’s not hard to see why he has been so eager to ensure that the person whose duty it will be to make the final decision on the reinstatement of charges, namely the national director of public prosecutions, should be someone over whom he has substantial sway.

True, there’s many a slip twixt the cup and the lip, but it’s no harder to see how the decision to drop the charges against Zuma can stand up to the legal test of rationality.

The decision was made, it was privately acknowledged at the time, not on the basis of a measured consideration of the evidence against him but on the expedient political basis that not only had Zuma been the subject of the Mbeki leadership’s attempts to keep him out of power, he was also on the cusp of becoming president in the April 2009 election, having defeated Mbeki at the ANC’s Polokwane conference in December 2007.

If the court decides the dropping of the charges was irrational, then, regardless of the inevitable appeal Zuma’s legal team will institute, it may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and Zuma may be forced to resign by his own party.

Or, more likely, he will resist such a move tooth and nail and further political turbulence will ensue, causing more damage to institutions and government.

And so we find our way back to Maimane, because an alternative scenario is this: that he, perhaps under pressure from some of his party’s most generous and influential corporate patrons, decides that the greatest act of leadership that he could give the nation early in his term as opposition leader would be to pave the way for Zuma to be quietly convinced to go. That would require delicate navigation and negotiation between Maimane and significant figures in the ANC’s leadership. Maimane would offer to withdraw the judicial review case in the public interest, in return for a cast-iron promise that Zuma would go.

A person or party other than the DA could relaunch the review proceedings but they would be starting from scratch, so it would take years and they would have to have the resources and patience for a task that would look increasingly moot and irrelevant.

South Africa tends to move on quickly. Zuma would be rapidly forgotten. Nkandla and the original corruption matters would, rightly or wrongly, be consigned to the file marked “unfinished business that should, in the broader interests of South Africa, remain so”.

In this way, as Zille departs the stage so Zuma’s own future may lie, at least partially, in the hands not only of his own party but also in those of the young man who faces him across the aisle of the National Assembly.

Many would thank Maimane if he took this approach. It might just be a stroke of brilliant political genius. Certainly, the mood in the investment world and in the C-suites of corporate South Africa would lift, just as progressively minded democrats would celebrate the end of the toxic Zuma years.

And it would provide a powerfully distinctive start to Maimane’s time as leader of the opposition – and potentially mark him out as a nation-builder of note.

Richard Calland is the director of the democratic governance rights unit at the University of Cape Town

South Africa – M&G’s rogues gallery of 2014

Mail and Guardian

After a strict selection process, amaBhungane reveals the rogues of 2014.


Gayton McKenzie and Gold Fields

It helps to have friends in high places – ask ex-con Gayton McKenzie’s pals and relatives, some of whom became millionaires overnight.

McKenzie cut in his cronies to the tune of more than R330-million in the R2-billion Gold Fields empowerment deal. ANC chairperson Baleka Mbete also pocketed shares worth a cool R28-million.

McKenzie was brought into the deal along with President Jacob Zuma’s one-time lawyer, Jerome Brauns, to help the mining house to secure new-order mining rights from the government. McKenzie didn’t answer questions and Gold Fields refused to comment.


Free State agriculture department and Estina

One of South Africa’s biggest unsolved mysteries is the Vrede dairy project in the Free State.

The provincial agriculture department has yet to answer numerous amaBhungane queries or explain to taxpayers how Estina, a company with no agricultural experience, led by a sales manager, was handed a R570-million dairy project without following due process.

The company’s only qualification was its allegedly close proximity to the Gupta family. Questions regarding the project’s benefits have been ignored.

After amaBhungane exposés last year, the national treasury conducted its own investigation and found that the deal flouted treasury rules and was undertaken without budget, a feasibility study or subsequent monitoring.

The company came under fire from the national department of water affairs and Vrede residents after it was revealed that 30 dead cows had been dumped in a ditch close to a river that supplies the town with drinking water.


Goldrich Holdings and the South African Police Service

The Blyvooruitzicht gold mine has been described as a war zone where dozens of beatings and murders have been reported since the bankrupt mine was taken over by Goldrich Holdings. An amaBhungane investigation suggested that 40 people, mostly illegal miners, have been killed.

Goldrich is managed by Fazel Bhana and Thulani Ngubane, who were among those embroiled in the 2010 Aurora mining debacle.

Allegations of violence at the hands of the Goldrich security guards, especially against zama zamas (illegal miners), were rife and a leaked video, showing the beating of two alleged cable thieves, highlighted the brutality of security personnel. The men were later found dead in a nearby dam. Police officers told amaBhungane the police were overwhelmed by the violence and sometimes failed to respond to it.


Swazi Chief Justice Michael Ramodibedi

Swaziland’s bigwigs think they should be immune from criticism. Several journalists, human rights activists and opposition party members have been jailed for opposing the monarchy of King Mswati III and his placemen – and the courts seem to do little to protect their freedom of expression.

Chief Justice Michael Ramodibedi brought contempt of court charges against prominent editor Bheki Makhubu for daring to find fault with him in the Nation magazine. After Makhubu had spent 20 days in custody, Ramodibedi personally opposed his release on bail.

For speaking his mind, Makhubu was sentenced to two years in prison or a R200 000 fine.

Ramodibedi, meanwhile, has been suspended as a judge in his home country of Lesotho.


Jacob Zuma and Khulubuse Zuma

For someone who claims that people often drop his name to get ahead, the president had no problems in helping his nephew, Khulubuse Zuma, to clinch a $2-million deal for his controversial mining company, Aurora Empowerment Systems, at a time when Aurora was desperate for a cash injection.

AmaBhungane revealed that Jacob Zuma met potential Aurora investor Global Emerging Markets (GEM) during the Fifa World Cup in 2010 – despite the glaring conflict of interest.

GEM has taken court action to recover the $2-million, which allegedly disappeared.


The Public Investment Corporation and Kase Lawal

Texas oilman Kase Lawal’s cosying up to the ANC and Zuma apparently paid off when he was handed billions of rands of South Africa’s civil servants’ pension savings.

The Public Investment Corporation (PIC) had given repeated assurances that it would hold off until the Texan’s cash-strapped company tapped into significant new oil fields in Nigeria to prove its viability.

In total the PIC has invested around R3-billion in Lawal’s company, Camac Energy.

Lawal has pledged millions to the Jacob Zuma Education Trust, as well as helping him to land an honorary doctorate from Texas Southern University in the United States.


Thandi Modise

National Council of Provinces chairperson Thandi Modise bought a R4.9-million farm in 2011 and never looked back – literally – as she apparently had no clue about what was happening there.

After her allegedly unpaid workers absconded, the Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals found dozens of animals had starved to death while others had resorted to cannibalism.

AmaBhungane revealed that the farm had been left under the management of Modise’s former boyfriend and an ANC councillor in Ekurhuleni, Abdul Mogale.



After four years of dilly-dallying, Eskom finally awarded a hotly contested R2.6-billion tender for critical nuclear maintenance at the Koeberg power station to the French multinational, Areva.

This was despite American-owned Westinghouse being recommended for the bulk of the work in both 2011 and 2013.

The U-turn raised eyebrows about possible political interference, and Westinghouse demanded access to documents relating to the contract.

After releasing them in dribs and drabs, Eskom finally handed over most of the records under threat of a contempt of court case and the potential jailing of two of its senior officials.


Namibia’s ruling party, Swapo

Swapo is the gift that keeps giving – especially to individuals close to it.

What was meant to be an empowerment scheme aimed at supplying rough diamonds to beef up the local industry appears overwhelmingly to serve the interests of individuals close to state power.

An amaBhungane investigation found that politicians, their children and businesspeople affiliated with Swapo dominate the list of handpicked recipients, known as “sight-holders”, who have benefited from more than R12-billion in diamonds over the past six years.

Beneficiaries include relatives of former president Sam Nujoma and Belgian-American diamond magnate Maurice Tempelsman.


The Bhanas

Horse-racing enthusiast Solly Bhana and his diminutive son Fazel, along with several of their relatives and associates, have spent another year dodging responsibility for the wrecking of two Thandi Modise .

This is despite their allegedly crucial role in running both operations, which came under the control of failed mining investment company Aurora Empowerment Systems.

The already distressed assets were all but destroyed, and Aurora’s inability to raise investment caused severe suffering to thousands of unpaid workers.

The Bhanas apparently received millions of rands from Aurora’s bank accounts when the company was technically broke.

They continue to try and stave off legal claims by the Pamodzi

liquidators. At the same time, it has emerged that the father-son team has been embroiled in other dubious deals, including, it is alleged, in Dubai.


Dudu Myeni

Despite bitter complaints that she is an “absentee” board chairperson at South African Airways (SAA), Dudu Myeni is still standing while her board critics have been given the bullet. Why is she apparently untouchable? Could it have anything to do with her up-close-and-personal relationship with Zuma? Myeni defied Public Enterprises Minister Lynne Brown, who stated publicly that she had instructed Myeni to reverse the suspension of Monwabisi Kalawe, the SAA chief executive.

AmaBhungane revealed that Myeni and her child were absorbed into Zuma’s extended family many years ago. Scorpions records also showed that she received recurrent cheques from Number One.

She is the executive chairperson of the Jacob Zuma Foundation.



This is the story that just keeps on giving, perhaps until Zuma “pays back the money”. While the state insists the upgrade was to provide top-of-the-range security to the First Citizen, amaBhungane obtained 12 000 pages of evidence showing it was about more than providing bullet-proof windows, electric fences and state-of-the-art surveillance.

After a drawn-out application using the Promotion of Access to Information Act and an ongoing court battle, the pages released to amaBhungane by the department of public works revealed a swimming pool, visitors’ centre, cattle kraal, marquee area and other non-security goodies at his simple rural homestead.

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Christmas South African style by Madam and Eve

Mail and Guardian

South Africa – Zuma says he is in perfect health and post-election fatigue


South Africa’s Zuma says in ‘perfect’ health after post-election fatigue


South African President Jacob Zuma delivers a speech at the closing ceremony of the 2014 Year of South Africa in China at Tianqiao Theater in Beijing, December 5, 2014. REUTERS/Jason Lee

South African President Jacob Zuma delivers a speech at the closing ceremony of the 2014 Year of South Africa in China at Tianqiao Theater in Beijing, December 5, 2014.

Credit: Reuters/Jason Lee

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JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South African President Jacob Zuma said he was in “perfect” condition after recovering from a bout of fatigue that left him hospitalised in June, playing down reports of health problems.

Zuma, 72, has noticeably lost weight since coming to power in 2009. He was hospitalised for two days of tests following what his office said was a demanding schedule in the run-up to May’s national election.

“I think we did overstretch ourselves, I think there was fatigue thereafter,” Zuma said in an interview with national broadcaster SABC that was aired on Sunday.

“There was a period where I really took it easy. I couldn’t say my health was in perfect condition — I’m in perfect condition now — but at that time, one could feel the strain of elections.”

The Sunday Times newspaper reported in June that Zuma’s hospitalisation was triggered by heart problems, diabetes and high blood pressure. His spokesman later dismissed the report, saying Zuma was fine.

Worries about Zuma’s health have raised some speculation he may not see out the full five years of his second term. His ruling African National Congress (ANC) won a 62 percent majority in the May polls, its narrowest victory since the end of white-minority rule in 1994.


We need to talk about Cyril – Ramaphosa and South Africa’s presidency

African Arguments – By Desné Masie

Oh the irony. In 1982, Cyril Ramaphosa, presided over the establishment of one of South Africa’s largest trade unions, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM). Exactly thirty years later, Ramaphosa, in his capacity as board member of Lonmin PLC, presided over the worst state violence against civilians since apartheid, many of whom were NUM members, when police shot and killed 34 miners during the wildcat strike at Lonmin’s Marikana platinum mine.

Ramaphosa, currently the deputy president of South Africa, has a long history as a firebrand trade unionist, skilled negotiator and senior member of SA’s ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC). He was a key figure in South Africa’s transition to democracy in 1994. So how did Ramaphosa turn into a millionaire businessman with substantial assets allegedly stashed in tax havens?

Ramaphosa is accused of having sold out the Marikana miners, and while he has been cleared of criminal liability by the Farlam Commission, some of his most ardent critics – such as the Economic Freedom Fighters’ Dali Mpofu, who named him ‘accused number one’ in the “toxic collusion” between police, Lonmin and the State – insist Ramaphosa is ultimately responsible for their deaths.

With Jacob Zuma increasingly an absent president, and embroiled in the Nkandla controversy in which he is alleged to have spent US$23m of public funds on renovating his personal residence, Ramaphosa is becoming an increasingly powerful and controversial figure: he has represented Zuma at official functions, stepping in when the president is nowhere to be seen, and with his connections in the trade unions, business, and politics, and the likelihood that he is the next president, it’s time to talk about Cyril.

Cyril the Negotiator: Cosatu, the ANC and South Africa’s transition to democracy

Ramaphosa’s long political career started as a student politician in the 1970s, and by 1982 he had helped to establish the NUM, and in 1985, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), South Africa’s powerful union federation, currently in meltdown due to a spat with union Numsa (National Union of Metalworkers of SA). His ascendency to the upper echelons of the liberation movement and current ruling party, saw him on the National Reception Committee, which co-ordinated the release of Nelson Mandela. By 1991 Ramaphosa was elected general-secretary of the ANC.

During the period of South Africa’s transition to democracy, Ramaphosa soon established himself as a skilled negotiator and was a key figure in the Convention for a Democratic South Africa (Codesa) as well as in the bilateral talks with Roelf Meyer, a senior member of the National Party. The dialogue between Ramaphosa and Meyer was instrumental in bringing about an agreement between the NP and the ANC, and ultimately, the blueprint for South Africa’s Constitution and the start of its democratic era.

After losing the 1996 presidential competition to Thabo Mbeki, Ramaphosa concentrated his attention on his business interests, despite being perceived as Mandela’s favourite, and his election to the top of the ANC national executive in 1997.

Cyril the Tycoon: The tangled web of Shanduka, Lonmin and Marikana

Where to begin? The tangled web of business interests that form Ramaphosa’s empire have helped him to amass a fortune of an estimated $700m and made him one of Africa’s richest men. With companies spanning almost every conceivable sector of the economy from mining to financial services to McDonalds and CocaCola, it’s almost impossible to escape the net of Shanduka Group, the holding company that is the foundation of Ramaphosa’s business empire.

Ramaphosa’s good fortune has undoubtedly been helped along by his political and union connections as well as the country’s Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) legislation that has aimed to address past racial discrimination through affirmative action in job placement and procurement policies. This has contributed to the creation of a black oligarch class that has succeeded in winning government tenders and amassing holdings in corporations as well as extensive board memberships. It is hardly surprising that Ramaphosa is married to Tshepo Motsepe, who is the sister of fellow mining magnate and billionaire, Patrice Motsepe.

For Ramaphosa it all began with New Africa Investments Limited in the 1990s, with interests in MTN, a large telecommunications and mobile telephony company and culminated with Shanduka Group, which he founded in 2001, and which had a stake in Lonmin’s SA operations at the time of the Marikana massacre. Shanduka was founded as a black-owned investment holding company, and is invested in a diverse portfolio of listed and unlisted companies, with key holdings in the resources, food and beverage industries and has investments in South Africa, Mozambique, Mauritius, Ghana and Nigeria.

Following Marikana, the overlapping web of politics and business has been snapping at Ramaphosa’s heels. The Farlam commission revealed email correspondence that may be interpreted as him having unduly used his political influence on the police, and some have argued this is what led to the use of force on the miners. But testimony also revealed that the company paid millions in commissions to agents in the tax haven of Bermuda. Lonmin is thus alleged by the economist Dick Forslund to have used transfer pricing to shift profits. It is this allegation, that Ramaphosa may have assets stashed away in tax havens, and not the Marikana massacre itself, that may yet be his undoing, if found to be true.

Forslund argues that “the amounts were shifted from Lonmin’s South African operations so as not to be used for meeting wage demands, social labour commitments, or be included in taxable income”. Tax avoidance by Lonmin may therefore also have been a key precipitating factor to the violence at Marikana. Ironically, Ramaphosa himself referred to corporate tax avoidance a “crime against ordinary South Africans”. The capital flight of assets from African economies is increasingly being met with opposition because it undermines their economies and revenue collection as I recently wrote here.

Ramaphosa has, however, resigned from his position as the executive chairperson of Shanduka, in order to take up the role of deputy president, and it is expected that he should divest his assets to prevent a conflict of interests.

Is a Cyril Presidency Guaranteed and What Would it Look Like?

Ramaphosa certainly has the political pedigree, but is his path to the presidency guaranteed? I spoke to Professor Steven Friedman, director of the Centre for the Study of Democracy at the University of Johannesburg about his thoughts on this. Says Friedman: “Ramaphosa’s role in politics has been that of conciliator and skilled negotiator … and while Ramaphosa would certainly be, for most of the middle class, press and business, a congenial choice, he remains also a loyal servant of the ANC… He is not known for being a big political risk taker or gung-ho reformer … and even though he had significant support to run for the ANC presidency in 2007, he was not up for the challenge, and he became deputy president almost by accident”.

Friedman and I also discussed the issue of Zuma’s perceived absenteeism and Ramaphosa often having to stand in for him, for example, by attending the recently deceased Zambian president’s Sata’s funeral. Friedman is of the opinion that Ramaphosa’s increasingly prominent role was to be anticipated because the ANC is very aware that Zuma is not popular. As an example, Ramaphosa’s predecessor Kgalema Motlanthe was also a relatively prominent deputy, and took the lead with key issues such as the media ‘secrecy bill’. Other potential candidates in the running include Gwede Mantashe, the current ANC secretary-general, fellow BEE tycoon and ANC veteran Tokyo Sexwale, and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, currently head of the African Union and enjoying the support of those making the case for a female head of state. So it’s not the case necessarily that Ramaphosa is being set up as the next president, and further, the ANC normally decides its leadership in terms of its own archaic processes that is partly related to factionalism.

Hence, as Friedman sees it, “Zuma is head of the party, but in terms of dealing with the constituency it makes more sense to put someone more congenial forward.” However, Zuma is presented as being unpopular in the media, which represents elite and key interests groups in South African society, and election results have shown that the rest of the country do not necessarily share the same views. Similarly, the issues raised about Ramaphosa in the media may be reflective of such politicking. Says Friedman: “Ramaphosa is being accused of being a murderer, but everybody knows this is how the game is being played in terms of individual politics, however, if the tax haven allegations are found to be true the political consequences could be potentially bad”.

What awaits the next president of South Africa?

South Africa is on red alert in terms of the erosion of its democratic institutions and the threats to economic stability resulting from, yes the legacy of apartheid, but also, the insidious, incestuous rot in private and public partnerships, the normalisation of corruption and the culture of ‘tenderpreneurship’. Democratic societies are undermined by inequality and rent-seeking between public and private deals that transfer losses to the public with low economic growth and unemployment, while transferring gains to the private through returns on assets and tax avoidance.

One of the key issues that Marikana threw up was rampant socio-economic inequality in South Africa. So while South Africa has a long history of upholding workers’ rights and a strong trade union tradition, rates of unemployment, incidents such as Marikana, and slow growth, are creating further tensions and wildcat strikes. One such outcome of the inflammatory labour relations environment has been the World Economic Forum ranking South Africa last in labour-employer relations in its Global Competitiveness Report due its “hostile labour relations” environment and “labour market inefficiency”.

Despite all this, some have argued that Ramaphosa was, due to his status, always going to emerge from the Farlam Commission unscathed, and it is likely he will not be fingered by the tax avoidance allegations either. We can only hope that if Ramaphosa succeeds Zuma as president of South Africa, that he will not be derailed by vested interests, and that his business acumen and negotiating skills place the economy and society onto a more salubrious path that is not tainted by sybaritic kleptocrats.


South Africa – growing rift between Zuma and Mantashe in ANC

Mail and Guardian

The M&G spoke to several sources who all painted a picture of the ANC president openly at odds with his secretary general.

At loggerheads: Top level ANC sources say the tension between Gwede Mantashe and President Jacob Zuma is intensifying. (Oupa Nkosi)

President Jacob Zuma has sidelined ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe, openly undermining him and directing Cabinet ministers to defy him.

The Mail & Guardian spoke to several ANC national executive committee (NEC) sources – independently of each other – who all painted a picture of Zuma openly at odds with Mantashe.

This is a stark departure from Zuma’s first term, before the ANC’s Mangaung conference in 2012, when Mantashe played the role of an unofficial “prime minister” and strongly backed Zuma.

Now Mantashe is seen as a threat to Zuma and his KwaZulu-Natal backers’ succession plans for when Zuma’s term ends in 2017. ANC members in Mantashe’s home province of the Eastern Cape have made clear their support for him to become ANC deputy president, a plan at odds with the Zuma faction’s ambitions.

But Mantashe says there appears to be a campaign to drive a wedge between him and the president. “That is what they are praying for,” he told the M&G this week.

Clearly aware of the claims of a growing rift, Mantashe said it was something some NEC members “wished for”. One of the contributing factors for the apparent rift is Mantashe’s propensity to speak his mind on ANC matters. The secretary general noted that, although he enjoyed freedom of speech, he was not petty. “I am organisational, I am not petty,” he said.

The tension between the two men seems to be intensifying, according to the NEC sources. Two members said Mantashe was increasingly marginalised by Zuma and his allies. And a former ANC top official said he believed the fight was getting worse.

One NEC member said Zuma appears to be on the warpath against Mantashe in an effort to “save his legacy” and “get more friends” – even if that means not toeing the party line as set out by Mantashe.

The sources detailed numerous incidents that demonstrate how Zuma advised his allies, including Cabinet ministers, to oppose Mantashe. “If the president says something and the secretary general says something else, we will listen to the president,” one source said.

Many of the allegations are based on anecdotal and behind-closed-doors interactions between the two men, but a number of incidents confirm the growing tension.

In June, Mantashe was vehemently opposed to a task team announced by then newly appointed Minister of Mineral Resources Nkgoako Ramatlhodi to mediate in the five-month-long platinum strike.

One source, significantly close to the matter, said Mantashe and the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) – Mantashe was previously a general secretary of the union – were firm that government should not intervene in the strike.

They appeared to have argued that government’s intervention would legitimise what they called a “violent Amcu” [the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union]. Amcu, the NUM’s rival, led the violent strike that brought the platinum industry to a standstill.

Mantashe was not coy about this sentiment, repeatedly saying at the time that Amcu was supported by “foreign forces” and “outsiders”.

But despite Mantashe’s reservation, Ramatlhodi pushed ahead, and formed the technical task team – after being emboldened by a directive from Zuma. The source noted that Ramatlhodi went to Zuma’s office in Pretoria where he explained what he (Ramatlhodi) described as a “desperate situation” and was then given the nod by Zuma to intervene.

It emerged that Zuma went as far as directing Ramatlhodi to ignore Mantashe’s objection and to form the task team. At a subsequent NEC subcommittee meeting on mineral resources, Ramatlhodi was reprimanded for not abiding by Mantashe’s instructions. This was done by an NEC member aligned to Mantashe.

Ramatlhodi apparently noted in that meeting that as a member of the executive he took his instructions from Zuma and not Mantashe. He added that he did what he thought was “best for the country”.

But this week Mantashe denied trying to dissuade Ramatlhodi from intervening in the deadlock in the platinum sector. “We met Ramatlhodi as officials in the middle of the intervention,” he said.

During national elections in May, the ANC in Gauteng got a hammering from voters, ostensibly over the introduction of e-tolls in the province. Newly elected premier David Makhura set up a panel to review the tolls, but Mantashe was vehemently opposed to it, saying the scheme had been initiated and implemented by the ANC government.

Makhura pushed ahead anyway, and it emerged that he went to Zuma, who gave him permission to review the controversial e-tolls. This visit to get Zuma’s approval was confirmed by ANC Gauteng chairperson Paul Mashatile.

“People say the president is unhappy about it [e-tolls]. But he is the first person who was consulted and he gave the go-ahead,” Mashatile said after the ANC’s provincial conference earlier this month.

In an interview with City Press last week, Mantashe again reprimanded the Gauteng leadership for taking on the mother party. “If you have an issue, you don’t raise it publicly and threaten the ANC,” Mantashe was quoted as saying.

Two senior ANC sources said that in addition to the approval about the e-tolls by Zuma, it was then further discussed with Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa.

But this week Mantashe denied being opposed to the e-toll review panel: “I did not meet the premier of Gauteng. He came to the office when I was not here. He met with the deputy secretary general [Jessie Duarte, a close Zuma ally], who gave him the go-ahead,” he said.

The ANC in Gauteng has now called for the scrapping of the controversial e-tolls and has sided with opposition parties to figure out how best to settle the infrastructure debt. The ANC almost lost Gauteng in the May general election, with opinion polls citing the e-tolls as an electoral turn off.

But the most damning bone of contention between Zuma and Mantashe has been the appointment of Hlaudi Motsoeneng as the SABC’s chief operating officer.

The M&G reported in July this year that the communications minister, Faith Muthambi, got a directive from Zuma to ratify Motsoeneng’s appointment. Mantashe told the M&G then that the ANC was opposed to the appointment.

Two other sources in the top leadership of the ANC said the friction between Zuma and Mantashe over this matter has not died down.

“The SG [Mantashe] is still very open about it, that the president made the wrong instruction about appointing Hlaudi,” one source said.

The same source added that Mantashe argued that the directive to appoint Motsoeneng had affected the public’s confidence in the ruling party. M&G

South Africa – Gauteng ANC wants Ramaphosa as next president

Mail and Guardian

It supports women leaders but believes Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa is the best person for the job.

The deputy president of the ANC and the country, Cyril Ramaphosa, is believed by many party faithful to be the best man to be head of state.

As some within the ANC lobby for president Jacob Zuma’s successor to be a woman, Gauteng ANC chairperson Paul Mashatile has openly declared his support for deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa to become both the party’s and the country’s next head.

Although Gauteng is not the largest ANC province, it plays a crucial role in the party’s succession battles. Rampahosa is without a definable constituency but has tried to penetrate KwaZulu-Natal – the ANC’s largest province, albeit one that is no longer solidly behind Zuma.

Ramaphosa was not Gauteng’s choice for deputy president at the ANC’s Mangaung national elective conference in 2012, preferring Tokyo Sexwale, but there has since been a change of heart.

Gauteng senior leaders say the province is now trying hard to court Ramaphosa – against the wishes of the so-called Zuma camp.

A Gauteng provincial executive committee (PEC) member told the Mail & Guardian that, before the country’s polls in May, a faction in the Zuma camp attempted to prevent Ramaphosa from accepting invitations to the province’s election campaign events. They wanted him to establish his credentials in KwaZulu-Natal instead.

But the PEC member also said the province “believed in Cyril”, despite earlier concerns that he was part of the Zuma camp. Gauteng’s attempt to embrace Ramaphosa was confirmed by Mashatile this week.

He was speaking a week after ANC Women’s League national executive committee member and Social Development Minister Bathabile Dlamini told the M&G she will support African Union Commission chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma or ANC chair Baleka Mbete for the ANC’s top position in 2017.

Some women’s league branches want Dlamini to replace Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga as league president. Dlamini is keen for the league to discuss a resolution to support a woman president for the country in 2017.

AU Commission chief Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma is the first choice for many should South Africa gain its first woman president.

The issue of a female head of state has received support in some ANC structures since Zuma said in April that the country is ready to be led by a woman, although some in the ANC have interpreted the suggestion as a strategy by Zuma and his supporters to block Ramaphosa from succeeding him.

This week, Mashatile said his province will throw its support behind Ramaphosa to become the next president. “I know in Gauteng, as things stand, there is a lot of support for the deputy president. We see him [Ramaphosa] as a potential future president. If there is a view that it should be someone else, we should be convinced about the appropriateness of such.

“We do support women leaders, but in a situation where you have a deputy president who is available and you want someone else, you will have to engage us,” said Mashatile.

Factional battles
A senior women’s league member said the problem is that the league never makes decisions based on principle, but is always caught up in the ANC’s factional battles. That is why there was no solid league position prior to the ANC’s 2007 Polokwane elective conference, with some supporting Kgalema Motlanthe for ANC deputy president while others backed Dlamini-Zuma.

The highly placed women’s league member said the only way the body could show the courage of its convictions would be to do some work on the ground and not merely lobby through the media.

The M&G this week spoke to a number of provincial and national alliance leaders on the matter of succession.

“It’s fine if national leadership raised the issue, but with us we will only discuss it when we are there [the 2017 conference],” said Sihle Zikalala, the ANC’s KwaZulu-Natal provincial secretary.

Although Zikalala did not want to comment on Dlamini-Zuma, he was firm in his support for Ramaphosa if he were to lead the party come 2017. “He is a leader of the ANC; he can lead the organisation.”

Healthy debate
ANC Free State secretary William Bulwana said it is healthy for the organisation that Dlamini started the debate about a woman president. “It triggers debate. I don’t see any wrong, really,” he told the M&G.

Declining to be drawn on Ramaphosa’s abilities, saying it would be wrong to “single him out as a person”, he nonetheless spoke glowingly of Dlamini-Zuma. “I think Nkosazana is a very good leader and she has qualities of leadership.”

The party’s Mpumalanga secretary, Lucky Ndinisa, said he agreed with Dlamini on her choice of candidates. “If Bathabile [Dlamini] feels we should support women I won’t have a problem with that, but it is early for us to talk about it,” said Ndinisa. “We need to focus on the resolutions and manifesto of the ANC.”

But Ndinisa also said he holds Ramaphosa in high regard as a leader.

ANC chairperson Baleka Mbete is a contender for the presidency.

ANC heavyweight and Minister of Small Business Lindiwe Zulu said it is only a matter of “when” the ANC will have its first female president. “It’s never too soon. It’s up to the women to make it happen and we will be supported by those men who have gone beyond those arguments of ‘are we ready or not?’ It’s up to us.”

Capable person
The ANC Youth League’s national task team co-ordinator, Magasela Mzobe, said Dlamini is brave to have started the debate about a woman leader now. “In principle it is possible: the ANC branches can elect a female, male, gay or straight president any time they identify a capable person,” Mzobe said.

“The only organisation in South Africa that can give South Africa a female president is the ANC. Only the ANC has capable women who are given an opportunity to lead.”

Senzo Mahlangu, general secretary of the South African Transport and Allied Workers’ Union, said Ramaphosa is the best candidate to replace Zuma. He warned against pushing Dlamini-Zuma or Mbete – both hail from Zuma’s home province – saying it could be seen as tribalism.

“If I were to decide, I would say Cyril. He is not new to politics. He is smart and has a lot of experience as a leader. He is not moved by money or power,” said Mahlangu.

Matuma Letsoalo is a senior politics reporter at the Mail & Guardian.
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Verashni Pillay is an associate editor at the Mail & Guardian.
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Twitter: @verashni